Potential postal disruption. Prepare for possible mail delays due to Canada Post labour negotiations. You can use our mobile app or log in to my Sun Life to submit claims and/or check on your investments.

Get more help here

Close search  
  • Please enter a search term.

Please select your language preference on the right hand side

Languages - Canada

  • English
  • Français
Back
Regions
Language
  • English
  • Français
Skip to signin Skip to main content Skip to footer
Sunlife logo
  • I am an:
    Advisor
    The selected view is for Advisors. Activate the menu to switch your view.
    Advisor
    Investor
    End of list. Press Escape to close the menu.
  • Practice management consulting
  • Applications & forms
  • Contact us
  • CANADA | EN
  • Search
  • Products

    Mutual funds

    • Overview
    • Sun Life MFS Funds
    • Sun Life Granite Managed Solutions
    • Sun Life Private Investment Pools
    • Sun Life Tactical ETF Portfolios
    • Sun Life Milestone Funds
    • Emerging Markets Funds
    • Private Client Pricing

    Segregated funds

    • Overview
    • Sun GIF Solutions
    • Sun Lifetime Advantage
    • Investment options
    • Sun Life GIFs Products no longer for sale

    GICs and Annuities

    • Insurance GICs and Trust GICs Overview
    • Insurance GICs
    • Sun GIC Max
    • Superflex
    • Trust GICs
    • Income Master
    • SLF Trust GIC
    • Payout annuities
  • Performance & Insights

    Mutual funds

    • Overview
    • Daily prices
    • Performance
    • Ratings
    • Fund codes

    Segregated funds

    • Overview
    • Daily prices
    • Performance
    • Ratings
    • Fund codes

    Insurance GICs and Trust GICs

    • Rates

    Insights

    • Commentary
    • Investor Education
  • Resources

    Advisor marketing & resources

    • Segregated funds marketing
    • Fund reviews
    • Payout annuities advisor resources
    • Trust GICs advisor resources
    • Insurance GICs advisor resources
    • Multi-product conversations

    Investor resources

    • Market volatility
    • Retirement Hub
    • MFS Insights
    • Solving the Know Your Product (KYP) puzzle

    Tools & calculators

    • Overview

    Mutual Funds

    • Mutual fund illustration tool
    • Granite Solutions tool
    • Series T calculator

    Segregated Funds

    • Choose your path
    • Current income rates
    • Investment GIF e-App
    • Sun Life GIFs Proposal tool

    Regulatory documents

    • Fund facts
    • Financial statements
    • Management Reports of Fund Performance and Quarterly Portfolio Disclosure
    • Simplified Prospectus
    • Proxy voting
    • Independent Review Committee (IRC) report
    • Passive Foreign Investment Company (PFIC)
  • About us

    Our story

    • Who we are
    • Investment management
    • Leadership
    • News releases
    • In the media

    Sustainability

    • Sustainability
    • Responsible investing
    • Governance & engagement
    • Inclusion at Sun Life Global Investments

    In the community

    • Livebright Scholarship Program
Sign In

  • MySunLifeGIFs access
  • Suncentral access
  • Advisor hub (Sun Life advisors)

  • MySunLifeGIFs access
  • Suncentral access
  • Advisor hub (Sun Life advisors)
Skip to signin Skip to main content Skip to footer
sunlife logo
Sign In
  • Please enter a search term.
  • Products
    • Back
    • Products
    • Products
    • Sun Life MFS Funds
    • Sun Life Granite Managed Solutions
    • Private Investment Pools
    • Sun Life Tactical ETF Portfolios
    • Sun Life Milestone Funds
    • Emerging Markets Funds
    • Private Client Pricing
    • Sun Life Guaranteed Investment Funds (GIFs)
      • Back
      • Sun Life Guaranteed Investment Funds (GIFs)
      • Sun GIF Solutions
      • Sun Lifetime Advantage GIF
      • Sun Life GIFs Investment options
      • Sun Life GIFs Products no longer for sale
    • Payout annuities
      • Back
      • Payout annuities
      • Life annuities
      • Term certain annuities
    • Insurance GICs and Trust GICs
      • Back
      • Insurance GICs and Trust GICs
      • Trust GICs
      • Insurance GICs
  • Performance
    • Back
    • Performance
    • Performance
    • Mutual funds
      • Back
      • Mutual funds
      • Overview
      • Daily prices
      • Performance
      • Ratings
      • Fund codes
    • Segregated Funds
      • Back
      • Segregated Funds
      • Overview
      • Daily prices
      • Performance
      • Ratings
      • Fund codes
    • Insurance and Trust GICs
      • Back
      • Insurance and Trust GICs
      • Rates
  • Insights
    • Back
    • Insights
    • Insights
    • Commentary
    • Investor education
  • Resources
    • Back
    • Resources
    • Resources
    • Segregated funds marketing
    • Payout annuities advisor resources
    • Trust GICs advisor resources
    • Insurance GICs advisor resources
      • Back
      • Insurance GICs advisor resources
      • Superflex/Income Master, Sun GIC Max and GIC - Comparison
      • New applications - Rate commitments
      • Subsequent cheque deposit - Investment instructions
      • Accrued income
      • Adjusted Cost Basis (ACB) - Deferred annuities
      • Annuitization
      • First sixty-day receipt information for Superflex and GIC products
      • General tax info for TFSA
      • Marriage breakdown and removal of spousal designation
      • Non-registered taxation of surrenders or withdrawals for non-residents
      • Non-residents - Non-registered annuity
      • Pension tax credit
      • Tax slip and receipt mailing schedule for all Individual products
      • Withholding tax on withdrawals from an RRSP
      • Withholding tax rates around the world
      • Six things you need to know about Insurance GICs
    • Advisor tools and calculators
      • Back
      • Advisor tools and calculators
      • Series T calculator
      • Granite Managed Solutions proposal tool
      • Investment illustration tool
      • Current income rates
      • Choose your path
      • My SunLifeGIFS tool
      • Investment GIF e-App
      • Retirement Income Navigator
    • Applications and forms
    • Regulatory documents
  • About us
    • Back
    • About us
    • About us
    • Who we are
    • Investment management
      • Back
      • Investment management
      • MFS Investment Mangement
      • Aditya Birla Sun Life Asset Management Company Pte. Ltd.
      • KBI Global Investors
      • Schroders
      • Dynamic Funds
      • BlackRock
      • Lazard Asset Management Canada Inc.
      • SLC Management
      • Crescent Capital Group
    • Leadership
    • News
    • Sustainability commitment
      • Back
      • Sustainability commitment
      • Governance & engagement
    • Responsible investing
      • Back
      • Responsible investing
      • Stewardship
    • Inclusion at Sun Life Global Investment
    • LiveBright Scholarship Program
  • Contact us
  • Select a role
    Back
    Select a role:
    • I am an Advisor
    • I am an Investor
  • CANADA | EN

    Please select your language preference on the right hand side

    Languages - Canada

    • English
    • Français
    Back
    Regions
    Language
    • English
    • Français
  1. Home
  2. Insights
  3. Commentary
  4. The Fed’s race to ‘neutral’ and beyond
Share this:
  • Share this on Facebook
  • Share this on Twitter
  • Share this on Linkedin

Market Updates

May 04, 2022

The Fed’s race to ‘neutral’ and beyond

With larger rate hikes, the US Federal Reserve is expected to take the federal funds rate to or above the neutral rate of interest to fight inflation. While the fed rate at neutral would neither restrict nor support growth, fed rates above neutral could weigh on both growth and inflation.

Chart of the US Federal Reserve's balance sheet expanding from the year 2007 to April 2022. The Fed's balance sheet double between March 2020 and January 2022.

Source: US Federal Reserve  

Line chart showing the midpoint of US Federal funds target rate between 2014 and 2022.

Source: Federal Reserve via St. Louis Fed

As anticipated, the US Fed raised interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) during its policy meet on May 3 and 4. The Fed hasn’t hiked interest rates by 50 bps since the 2000’s, but with headline consumer price inflation at 8.5%—the highest in over 40 years—this bolder move was deemed necessary.

The Fed also signalled similar rate hikes over the next couple of meetings. With such moves, it appears the Fed is aiming to take the federal funds rate to or above the neutral rate of interest in its fight against inflation.

But a neutral interest rate isn’t easy to spot

The neutral rate is influenced by demographics, inflation expectations and productivity amongst other dynamic factors. The measure is so elusive that St. Louis Fed President James Bullard once called it the ‘The Phantom Menace’.

And the menace has only grown challenging since. This time around, in addition to interest rate hikes, the Fed laid out its plan to shrink its balance sheet by around $1 trillion dollar a year, faster than the last quantitative tightening cycle of 2017-2019. The effects of a balance sheet runoff aren’t particularly well-known, but it points to financial tightening.

Markets are taking the cues

Amidst bouts of volatility ahead of the meeting, the S&P 500 fell nearly 9.1% and the Nasdaq slid 14% during April. Further, 30-year mortgage rates in the U.S. surpassed 5% for the first time since 2011. A Bloomberg index tracking U.S. financial conditions contracted to -0.73 in late April, the tightest levels since the COVID-19 induced shock of March 2020.  

All said, the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections released in March forecast a median federal funds rate of 1.9% for 2022 and 2.8% for 2023. The Fed’s median for neutral rate was estimated at 2.4%.  We expect the Fed to be more data dependent on its interest rate decisions after the relatively large initial moves.

What does this mean for Sun Life Granite Managed Solutions?

Our portfolios remain tactically overweight equities and underweight bonds. In the second half of Q1, we added to our core bond allocation as the risk profile had incrementally become more attractive with the rise in yields. We also added to quality (active management) and tilted our portfolios back towards US growth stocks as we believed to be heading into an environment of slower growth and rising risks.

Disclosure

This article contains information in summary form for your convenience, published SLGI Asset Management Inc. Although this article has been prepared from sources believed to be reliable, SLGI Asset Management Inc. cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness and is intended to provide you with general information and should not be construed as providing specific individual financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily the opinions of SLGI Asset Management Inc. Please note, any future or forward looking statements contained in this article are speculative in nature and cannot be relied upon. There is no guarantee that these events will occur or in the manner speculated. Please speak with your professional advisors before acting on any information contained in this article.

Quick links

  • Advisor sign-in
  • Client sign-in
  • Find a form
  • Newsroom
  • Rates

Regulatory Documents

  • Fund Facts
  • Information folders & contracts and supplements
  • Management Reports of Fund Performance and Quarterly Portfolio Disclosure
  • Simplified Prospectus
  • Proxy voting
  • Independent Review Committee report
  • Passive Foreign Investment Company (PFIC)

Plan sponsors, consultants & group advisors

  • Institutional investor site

Contact us

  • For all questions and inquiries, please contact us
  • Follow us on LinkedIn

SLGI Asset Management Inc. is the investment manager of the Sun Life family of mutual funds.  Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with mutual fund investments. Please read the fund’s prospectus. Mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated.

Sun Life Assurance Company of Canada is the issuer of accumulation annuities (insurance GICs), payout annuities and individual variable annuity contracts (segregated fund contracts).  Any amount that is allocated to a segregated fund is invested at the risk of the contract owner and may increase or decrease in value.  Sun Life Financial Trust Inc. is the issuer of guaranteed investment certificates.

Sun Life Global Investments is a trade name of SLGI Asset Management Inc., Sun Life Assurance Company of Canada and Sun Life Financial Trust Inc. all of which are members of the Sun Life group of companies.

  • Legal
  • Privacy
  • Security
  • Fraud
  • Accessibility
  • Careers

© SLGI Asset Management Inc., Sun Life Assurance Company of Canada, and their licensors. All rights reserved.

Start of modal

Welcome to Sun Life Global Investments

We use cookies to enhance your experience by saving your advisor or investor selection. If you prefer not to accept these cookies, please select "I'd rather not say".
Learn more about our cookie policy.

I am an advisor
I am an investor

I'd rather not say

End of modal