Key tactical changes
- Overweight equities: We are overweight U.S. equities as some of our sentiment models have indicated that markets are overly pessimistic despite positive economic data.
- Overweight U.S. semiconductor sector: Within U.S. equities we are positive on the U.S. semiconductor sector, where earnings growth has risen to meet expectations and momentum continues.
- Neutral bonds: We are currently neutral towards bonds, but we think they could become more attractive as U.S. 10-year Treasury yields approach the 5% level.
- Underweight cash: We think with long-term bond yields rising at a rapid pace, cash yields are relatively lower compared to that of bonds.
U.S. equities advanced at a rapid pace in 2024 and finished the calendar year with robust gains. Slowing but resilient labour markets, interest rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed), and ongoing enthusiasm for artificial intelligence and information technology stocks fueled U.S. stocks. Expectations of pro-growth policies such as tax cuts and deregulation from the incoming Trump administration further supercharged markets.
As a result, despite a volatile December, the benchmark S&P 500 Index rose 25% in 2024 after increasing 26% the previous year. This was the S&P 500’s best two-year performance since 1997 and 1998. Other assets joined the party: gold had its best year since 2010, and international equities represented by the MSCI All Country World Index jumped 16%. At home, Canada’s S&P TSX index rose 21% in 2024 on a total return basis.
However, the rally bypassed one key asset class: bonds. While bonds measured by the Morningstar US Core Bond Index gained a mere 1.36% (US$) in 2024, a rapid rise in 10-year U.S. Treasury yields wiped out a significant part of their gains during Q4 2024. The same pro-growth policy expectations from the Trump administration that buoyed stocks have hurt bonds. Markets expect Trump’s economic policies to further add to the country’s fiscal deficit and hinder the Fed’s fight against inflation. As a result, 10-year Treasury yields, which hovered around 3.6% in September, rapidly rose to 4.6% by the end of 2024. They further jumped to a 14-month high of 4.8% in January 2025. Markets now expect the Fed to pare back interest rate cuts in 2025.
We think markets are correct in reducing their expectations of upcoming interest rate cuts from the Fed. December’s labour market report confirmed our predictions that the U.S. economy is in good shape. A gain of about 256,000 jobs in December, a low unemployment rate of 4.1%, and inflation stuck between 2% and 3% alongside lower immigration could warrant fewer rate cuts. We now think a “no landing” scenario - resilient growth and inflation slightly above target - as the most likely outcome for the U.S. over the next few quarters. We expect the Bank of Canada to cut rates twice in the first half of 2025 as it tries to balance slowdown worries against a falling domestic currency.
As for our tactical positioning, we are overweight U.S. equities. Some of our sentiment models have indicated that markets are overly pessimistic despite positive economic data. Within equities, we are positive on the U.S. semiconductor sector, where earnings growth has risen to meet expectations and momentum continues. While valuations have trended higher for large cap technology stocks, we expect the earnings growth and rally to broaden to other sectors. While we are largely neutral on bonds, we think they’re getting more attractive despite a chance that yields may rise a bit from current levels.
