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Portfolio Insights

May 09, 2025

MFS Week in Review

A review of the week's top global economic and capital markets news.

MFS Week in Review

Markets firm ahead of U.S.–China meeting

For the week ending 9 May 2025

As of midday Friday, global equities were modestly firmer on the week amid signs of a thaw in the U.S.-China trading relationship. The yield on the U.S. 10-year note firmed 9 basis points from a week ago to 4.36% while the price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose US$2 to US$60.50. Volatility, as measured by the futures contracts on the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), fell to 22.1 from 23.0.

 

MACRO NEWS

U.S., U.K. reach first Trump 2.0 trade deal

On Thursday, the United States and Great Britain reached agreement on the framework for a new trade deal. The agreement keeps in place the 10% baseline levy with some exceptions while reducing the sectoral tariffs on the first 100,000 autos the U.K. exports to the U.S. annually. It also  exempts British steel and aluminum from those levies. The U.K. agreed to import more U.S. goods, including 10 billion dollars’ worth of Boeing jets. The deal clears the way for increased U.S. exports of farm products by lowering nontariff barriers. Prime Minister Keir Starmer said that the U.K. had been promised preferential treatment if U.S. tariffs are imposed on the import of pharmaceuticals, a move that is expected in the coming weeks. Thursday’s agreement suggests that neither the 10% baseline nor the 25% sectoral tariffs will be easily negotiated away as talks with other countries proceed.

U.S. and China to hold talks in Switzerland

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will meet in Switzerland this weekend with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng to discuss trade. The Wall Street Journal reported that Chinese outreach to the U.S. over controlling the flow of fentanyl precursors jump-started the rapprochement. Bessent warned that the meeting is more about deescalation than reaching a major trade agreement. Trump said Thursday that the 145% tariff rate against China can’t go higher and “we know it’s going down.” The president added that, with progress being made on trade and Congress working on a tax bill, “you better go out and buy stock now.” On Friday morning, Trump said an 80% tariff on China “seems right,” though the number would be up to Bessent. Media reports suggest the U.S. is considering cuts to between 50% and 54%.

Fed: Uncertainty high but economy solid

As expected, the U.S. Federal Reserve held rates steady in a range of between 4.25% and 4.50% on Wednesday. In its statement, the Federal Open Market Committee said it believes the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen. Against a highly uncertain backdrop, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the central bank is well-positioned to wait for greater clarity and that it is appropriate for policymakers to remain patient.  

 

QUICK HITS

  • Japan’s finance minister walked back comments that the country’s US$1 trillion-plus of U.S. Treasuries could be a bargaining chip in trade talks.
  • Australia’s Labour Party won an outright majority in last weekend’s general election, gaining Prime Minister Anthony Albanese a second term.
  • Eight OPEC+ countries are set to accelerate easing voluntary oil production cuts, increasing production by about 411,000 barrels a day in June. Crude oil futures fell to four-year lows on the news before rebounding.
  • The Wall Street Journal reported this week that China has stopped publishing hundreds of data points, including land sales, foreign investment and unemployment figures, making it more difficult to assess the health of the country’s economy.
  • Canada’s AAA sovereign rating was affirmed by S&P Global Ratings.
  • Friedrich Merz was elected Germany’s chancellor this week but not before failing to achieve a majority of the Bundestag on the first ballot. It was the first time in modern German history that a chancellor was not elected on the first ballot, suggesting Merz faces a challenge in passing difficult legislation.
  • The Financial Times reported that Chinese manufacturers are attempting to avoid the Trump administration’s tariffs by fraudulently undervaluing cargo sent to the U.S., exploiting a system that U.S. authorities have struggled to police.
  • China lowered its benchmark policy rate to 1.4% from 1.5% and cut its reserve requirement ratio 0.5% to an average of 6.2%.
  • The Bank of England lowered its base lending rate to 4.25%, with two policymakers voting for a larger reduction and two of the nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee voting to hold rates steady. The BOE said more cuts are likely and that it continues to view a “careful and gradual” approach to easing monetary policy as appropriate.
  • Services sector purchasing managers’ indices were mixed in April.
  • According to Deutsche Bank, U.S. firms have announced a total of US$518 billion in buybacks over the past three months, the largest tally on record.
  • The Taiwan dollar rallied strongly this week amid speculation that Taipei will allow the currency to strengthen to help ease trade tensions with the U.S.
  • On Wednesday, the Trump administration announced plans to repeal Biden-era AI chip restrictions and replace them with simpler rules.
  • Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney met with President Trump on Tuesday and said he thinks that a good basis has been established for trade talks with the U.S.
  • In the wake of a recent terrorist attack in Kashmir by suspected Pakistani terrorists, India and Pakistan traded air, missile and drone strikes this week. However, while tensions remain high, analysts see the probability of all-out war as low as both sides appear to be calibrating their moves to avoid escalation.
  • Bloomberg reported Thursday that President Trump supports a tax hike on those who earn US$2.5 million or more. The top rate would rise to 39.6% from 37%.
  • The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s survey of inflation expectations was unchanged over the one-year horizon at 3.6%, up 0.2% to 3.2% at the three-year horizon and down 0.2% to 2.7% over the five-year horizon.
  • China’s exports expanded 8.1% in April as the country appeared to reroute the export of goods through Southeast Asia while trade with the U.S. declined sharply. 

 

EARNING NEWS

With about 90% of the constituents of the S&P 500 Index having reported for Q1 2025, blended earnings per share (which combines reported data with estimates for those that have yet to report) show that earnings rose around 13.6% compared with the same quarter a year ago, according to data from FactSet. Blended sales rose 4.8% year over year.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Sources: MFS research, Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Reuters, Bloomberg News, FactSet Research, CNBC.com.

This commentary was first published in the United States by MFS and is distributed in Canada by SLGI Asset Management Inc., with permission.

MFS Investment Management or MFS refers to MFS Investment Management Canada Limited and MFS Institutional Advisors, Inc. MFS Investment Management Canada Limited is the sub-advisor to the Sun Life MFS Funds; SLGI Asset Management Inc. is the registered portfolio manager. MFS Investment Management Canada Limited and MFS Institutional Advisors, Inc. have entered into a sub-advisory agreement.

The views expressed in this commentary are those of the authors and are subject to change at any time. Views expressed regarding a particular company, security, industry or market sector should not be considered an indication of trading intent of any mutual funds managed by SLGI Asset Management Inc. or sub-advised by MFS. These views are subject to change and are not to be considered as investment advice nor should they be considered a recommendation to buy or sell.

Information presented has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made with respect to its timeliness or accuracy. This commentary may contain forward-looking statements about the economy and/or markets; their future performance, strategies or prospects. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance, are speculative in nature and cannot be relied upon.

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